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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ patriots week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-0
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
4 mph
27
NEPatriots
2-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
10
0
10
7
27

Spread

NE logo
-1

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
284
282
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.44
-0.01
Passing Yards
175
97
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.38
Rushing Yards
109
185
Rush Attempts
27
39
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.50
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-6
Sack EPA
-4.00
-2.24
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-6.39
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-64.5
Home QB Adjustment
-61.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+27.8
Final Difference
55.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.4
49
11/29
-3.3
27
12/06
-4.4
18
12/13
-1.0
44
12/20
2.1
66
12/28
2.6
69
01/03
-3.3
26
09/11
-0.5
45
09/18
-3.5
23
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-61.3
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
16
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
14
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
8
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
7
W
W
O
11/29
18
W
W
U
12/06
-9
L
L
O
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
O
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
-30
L
L
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-7
L
L
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
O
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-10
L
L
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/24
-2
L
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
O