HOUTexans
2-0
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
4 mph
27
NEPatriots
2-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
10
0
10
7
27
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
282
Total Plays
70
59
Yards / Play
4.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.44
-0.01
Passing Yards
175
97
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.38
Rushing Yards
109
185
Rush Attempts
27
39
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.50
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-6
Sack EPA
-4.00
-2.24
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-6.39
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.7%
Spread Pick
Patriots-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-64.5
Home QB Adjustment
-61.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
+17.3
Final Difference
46.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-61.3
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
14
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U