HOUTexans
4-1
41
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
5 mph
21
NEPatriots
1-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
0
13
14
41
Patriots
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
291
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.30
Passing Yards
176
209
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.46
Rushing Yards
192
82
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.31
-20.73
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-34
Sack EPA
-2.87
-9.48
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
38
50
Penalty EPA
+0.43
-8.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
+3.6
Final Difference
-140.3
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
29
17
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
30
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U