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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ patriots week 6, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-1
41
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
5 mph
21
NEPatriots
1-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
53°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
0
13
14
41
Patriots
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

HOU logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
368
291
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.30
Passing Yards
176
209
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.46
Rushing Yards
192
82
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
6.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.31
-20.73
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-34
Sack EPA
-2.87
-9.48
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
38
50
Penalty EPA
+0.43
-8.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
+3.6
Final Difference
-140.3
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
12/10
-8.7
6
12/31
2.1
64
01/06
4.5
78
01/13
8.9
96
01/20
1.2
57
09/08
0.9
55
09/15
-0.9
43
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.9
79
10/06
6.0
84
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22

EPA

EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
26
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
25
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
29
17
Turnover EPA / Game
9
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
30
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
U
01/06
4
W
W
U
01/13
31
W
W
O
01/20
-24
L
L
P
09/08
2
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
P
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
3
W
W
O
12/17
-10
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
12/31
-6
L
W
O
01/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
O
09/19
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-17
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U