HOUTexans
11-1
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
7 mph
42
NEPatriots
9-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
7
14
Patriots
14
7
7
14
42
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
419
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
5.0
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.33
Passing Yards
223
289
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.39
Rushing Yards
100
130
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.40
-3.28
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-24
-7
Sack EPA
-3.42
-2.31
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
70
56
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-4.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,684
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
122.9
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U