nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ patriots week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
11-1
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
7 mph
42
NEPatriots
9-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
7
14
Patriots
14
7
7
14
42

Spread

NE logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
323
419
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
5.0
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.33
Passing Yards
223
289
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.39
Rushing Yards
100
130
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
27
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.40
-3.28
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-24
-7
Sack EPA
-3.42
-2.31
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
70
56
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-4.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,684
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+17.9
Final Difference
123.2
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
3.3
71
10/08
-0.9
43
10/14
-6.6
11
10/21
3.0
69
11/04
2.9
68
11/11
-6.1
12
11/18
14.3
99
11/22
-0.6
46
12/02
2.2
63
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
09/23
5.8
85
09/30
9.4
95
10/07
0.9
55
10/14
5.2
83
10/21
4.8
81
10/28
9.8
96
11/11
1.8
61
11/18
8.8
94
11/22
11.4
98
12/02
-4.6
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8

EPA

EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
14
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
1
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/08
6
W
L
U
10/14
-18
L
L
O
10/21
30
W
W
O
11/04
12
W
W
U
11/11
7
W
W
U
11/18
6
W
L
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-1
L
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-1
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
38
W
W
O
11/11
6
W
L
O
11/18
35
W
W
O
11/22
30
W
W
O
12/02
7
W
P
U