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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ raiders week 7, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-3
20
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
38
OAKRaiders
1-4
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
10
10
0
20
Raiders
3
7
7
15
32

Spread

OAK logo
-7

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
404
400
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
6.2
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.32
Passing Yards
296
236
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.45
Rushing Yards
108
164
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.24
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-0.48
-1.21
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
14
--
Penalty EPA
-3.12
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
-30.5
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Value
Ptile
12/12
2.9
75
12/19
-2.2
36
12/26
3.7
79
01/02
-5.3
17
01/09
5.7
87
09/11
-0.4
49
09/18
-7.0
9
09/25
-2.5
32
10/02
-2.8
29
10/09
-3.3
26
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
12/20
-1.3
43
12/26
-1.4
43
01/02
-1.9
39
01/09
-3.6
27
01/15
-3.2
29
09/11
-6.8
10
09/18
2.6
73
09/25
2.3
71
10/02
-0.5
48
10/10
-0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Texans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19

EPA

EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
31
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
31
31
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
28
31
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Raiders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
13
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
26
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

3-6-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
-16
L
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/11
0
T
W
U
09/18
-7
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
2
W
L
U
12/26
4
W
W
U
01/02
3
W
W
U
01/09
3
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
L
U
09/11
-5
L
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/02
9
W
W
O
10/10
-1
L
W
O