HOUTexans
1-3
20
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
038
OAKRaiders
1-4
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
10
10
0
20
Raiders
3
7
7
15
32
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
400
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
6.2
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.32
Passing Yards
296
236
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.45
Rushing Yards
108
164
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.24
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-5
Sack EPA
-0.48
-1.21
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
14
--
Penalty EPA
-3.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+33.7
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
-30.5
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
31
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
31
31
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
28
31
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-6-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U