HOUTexans
3-5
7
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
68°F
033
LARRams
6-2
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
68°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
0
7
Rams
3
6
21
3
33
Spread
-13
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
443
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
4.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.08
Passing Yards
194
339
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.18
Rushing Yards
89
104
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.09
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-22
Sack EPA
-12.92
-5.01
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
60
86
Penalty EPA
-6.07
-11.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+341
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+75.7
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+107.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
-79.6
Market Regression
+2.6
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-79.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27
EPA
EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
6
30
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U