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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ rams week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-7
16
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
13
LARRams
1-12
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
7
3
16
Rams
0
10
3
0
13

Spread

LAR logo
+14

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
419
237
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
6.5
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
149
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.00
Rushing Yards
52
88
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.15
-10.02
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-4.11
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
57.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,299
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
-10.1
Final Difference
-254.8
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Value
Ptile
10/04
-5.0
21
10/11
8.0
92
10/18
8.8
94
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
K. Null headshot

K. Null

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
-9.5
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Texans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27

EPA

EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Rams logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10

EPA

EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
30
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
29
21
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
31
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
23
W
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
11
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-35
L
L
U
10/11
-28
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-36
L
L
O
11/01
7
W
W
U
11/15
-5
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
W
U
11/29
-10
L
L
O
12/06
-8
L
W
U
12/13
-40
L
L
O