HOUTexans
6-7
16
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
013
LARRams
1-12
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
7
3
16
Rams
0
10
3
0
13
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
237
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
6.5
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
149
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.00
Rushing Yards
52
88
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.15
-10.02
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-4.11
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model81.1%
Spread Pick
Rams+14.0
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
57.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-163
Home nfelo
1,300
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
-10.2
Final Difference
-253.2
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
K. Null
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
29
21
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Rams
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U