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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ ravens week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-0
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph
30
BALRavens
1-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
0
0
9
Ravens
0
5
7
6
18

Spread

BAL logo
0

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
264
236
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.09
Passing Yards
170
161
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.31
Rushing Yards
94
75
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.17
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-10
Sack EPA
-3.69
-2.60
Penalties
14
10
Penalty Yards
113
87
Penalty EPA
-12.98
-9.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
N/A
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model43.7%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
RavensN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
43.8
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.6
46
12/02
2.2
63
12/10
-4.0
25
12/16
1.2
57
12/23
-5.5
15
12/30
-5.7
14
01/05
3.5
72
01/13
5.3
83
09/09
7.6
91
09/15
0.1
50
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33
12/23
7.5
91
12/30
-4.9
19
01/06
2.3
64
01/12
7.1
90
01/20
3.2
71
02/03
5.3
83
09/05
-1.8
40
09/15
0.4
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
22
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
31
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
17
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
31
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
L
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/10
-28
L
L
O
12/16
12
W
W
U
12/23
-17
L
L
U
12/30
-12
L
L
U
01/05
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
L
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
19
W
W
U
12/30
-6
L
L
U
01/06
15
W
W
U
01/12
3
W
W
O
01/20
15
W
W
U
02/03
3
W
W
O
09/05
-22
L
L
O
09/15
8
W
W
U