HOUTexans
2-0
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph
30
BALRavens
1-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
0
0
9
Ravens
0
5
7
6
18
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
236
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.09
Passing Yards
170
161
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.31
Rushing Yards
94
75
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.17
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-10
Sack EPA
-3.69
-2.60
Penalties
14
10
Penalty Yards
113
87
Penalty EPA
-12.98
-9.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
N/A
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model43.9%
Spread Pick
RavensN/A
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
42.7
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
22
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
17
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U