HOUTexans
1-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0BALRavens
1-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model44.5%
Spread Pick
Ravens+1.5
Expected Value
+7.5%
Cover Probability
56.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+59.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-115.7
Home QB Adjustment
-121.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
38.1
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-121.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
26
23
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
31
28
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
3
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
10
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U