HOUTexans
1-3
44
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
78°F
2 mph
10
BALRavens
1-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
78°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
17
10
10
44
Ravens
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
207
Total Plays
66
40
Yards / Play
6.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.40
-0.39
Passing Yards
250
163
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.61
-0.39
Rushing Yards
167
44
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
12
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.13
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-16
Sack EPA
-4.12
-2.38
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
26
49
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-9.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model46.4%
Spread Pick
Ravens+2.5
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
54.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+60.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-116.7
Home QB Adjustment
-122.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
-63.7
Final Difference
25.1
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-122.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
24
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
19
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
10
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
7
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U