HOUTexans
4-6
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
1 mph
23
BALRavens
5-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
3
3
3
16
Ravens
0
17
0
6
23
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
294
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.03
Passing Yards
237
155
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.17
Rushing Yards
66
139
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
43%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.85
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-7.25
-2.27
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
36
89
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-11.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+65.3
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+44.6
Home QB Adjustment
-20.7
Away QB Adjustment
-65.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-65.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
12
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
14
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U