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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ ravens week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-6
16
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
1 mph
23
BALRavens
5-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
3
3
3
16
Ravens
0
17
0
6
23

Spread

HOU logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
303
294
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.03
Passing Yards
237
155
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.17
Rushing Yards
66
139
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
43%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.85
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-7.25
-2.27
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
36
89
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-11.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+44.6
Home QB Adjustment
-20.7
Away QB Adjustment
-65.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-65.3
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.5
16
01/01
-7.3
7
09/10
-10.9
2
11/05
-5.2
18
11/12
-7.2
12
11/19
1.7
65
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.7
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
0.1
53
09/24
-11.8
1
10/01
-4.8
20
10/08
0.2
54
10/15
-8.4
7
10/22
-2.7
34
10/26
-1.4
43
11/05
-0.4
49
11/19
-3.6
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
12
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
14
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-22
L
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O
10/08
-8
L
L
O
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/12
-26
L
L
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
14
W
W
U
09/24
-37
L
L
O
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
13
W
W
O
10/15
-3
L
L
O
10/22
-8
L
L
O
10/26
40
W
W
O
11/05
-3
L
P
O
11/19
23
W
W
U