HOUTexans
11-6
13
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
7 mph
20
BALRavens
12-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
0
13
Ravens
17
0
0
3
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
227
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
5.0
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
140
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.21
Rushing Yards
131
87
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.58
+7.83
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-9.35
Penalties
3
--
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-1.55
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Ravens-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+92.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-90.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
213.3
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-90.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
4
12
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
10
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U