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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ ravens week 19, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
11-6
13
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
7 mph
20
BALRavens
12-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
31°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
0
13
Ravens
17
0
0
3
20

Spread

HOU logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
315
227
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
5.0
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
140
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.21
Rushing Yards
131
87
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
16
11
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.58
+7.83
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-9.35
Penalties
3
--
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-1.55
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+92.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-90.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
213.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-90.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
30
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
12/22
-6.0
14
01/01
-4.9
20
01/07
-2.0
36
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
10/30
-0.9
45
11/06
1.7
64
11/13
-1.3
42
11/20
2.4
68
11/24
0.9
59
12/04
-4.1
24
12/11
0.2
54
12/18
-3.0
31
12/24
-1.1
43
01/01
0.8
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3

EPA

EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
11
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
4
12
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
18
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
10
RZ Efficiency
17
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
10
W
P
U
11/06
18
W
W
U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-1
L
P
O
01/07
21
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
3
W
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
O
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
7
W
P
O
11/24
10
W
W
U
12/04
14
W
W
U
12/11
14
W
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
6
W
L
U
01/01
8
W
W
O