HOUTexans
2-3
19
TBD
Lumen Field
56°F
5 mph
27
SEASeahawks
4-2
TBD
Lumen Field
56°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
0
7
13
Seahawks
14
0
13
0
27
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
316
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
3.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.24
Passing Yards
198
198
Comp/Att
23/50(46%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.47
Rushing Yards
56
118
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
13%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-19.62
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-31
-15
Sack EPA
-5.23
-7.51
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
105
93
Penalty EPA
-4.86
-2.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+23.7
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
-9.2
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6
EPA
EPA / Play
26
2
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Seahawks Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
29
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
15
RZ Efficiency
10
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U