HOUTexans
3-3
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
6 mph
30
PITSteelers
3-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
6
0
10
23
Steelers
0
24
0
6
30
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
328
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
6.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.06
Passing Yards
261
252
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.20
Rushing Yards
132
76
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.90
-4.43
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-16
Sack EPA
-0.49
-7.16
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
20
38
Penalty EPA
-4.02
-4.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
19
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
19
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
21
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U