HOUTexans
3-4
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
2 mph
16
TENTitans
2-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
13
14
3
30
Titans
3
0
6
7
16
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
326
Total Plays
80
57
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.16
Passing Yards
193
290
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.11
Rushing Yards
212
36
Rush Attempts
40
14
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.69
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-34
-9
Sack EPA
-8.32
-5.93
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
61
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-7.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-70.3
Home QB Adjustment
-67.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-65.5
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-67.0
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
2-5-3
ATS
3-7
O/U