HOUTexans
1-8
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
8 mph
13
TENTitans
8-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
9
7
3
22
Titans
0
0
6
7
13
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
190
420
Total Plays
62
79
Yards / Play
3.1
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
35/52(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.19
Rushing Yards
83
103
Rush Attempts
38
25
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
5
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
35%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.86
-20.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.11
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
52
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+272
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+4.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.9
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-53.5
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-53.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U