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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ titans week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-8
22
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
8 mph
13
TENTitans
8-2
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
9
7
3
22
Titans
0
0
6
7
13

Spread

HOU logo
+10.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
190
420
Total Plays
62
79
Yards / Play
3.1
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.22
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
35/52(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.19
Rushing Yards
83
103
Rush Attempts
38
25
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
5
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
35%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.86
-20.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-2.11
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
52
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-6.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+272
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+4.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.9
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-53.5
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-53.5
Value
Ptile
12/24
-5.1
19
12/31
-0.6
47
01/07
-6.3
15
09/09
-5.6
15
09/16
-0.4
43
09/20
-9.9
3
09/13
-5.0
15
09/12
5.1
84
09/19
1.6
65
11/07
-12.3
1
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.1
19
09/19
2.4
70
09/26
1.9
66
10/03
-5.3
18
10/10
-3.7
26
10/18
0.7
58
10/24
1.9
67
10/31
0.2
55
11/07
-2.0
38
11/14
1.6
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1

EPA

EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
10
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
9
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-3
L
W
O
09/12
16
W
W
O
09/19
-10
L
W
O
09/23
-15
L
L
U
10/03
-40
L
L
U
10/10
-3
L
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
11/07
-8
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-25
L
L
U
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
9
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
3
W
W
O
10/24
24
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
12
W
W
U
11/14
2
W
L
P