HOUTexans
10-1
24
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
19 mph
10
TENTitans
4-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
7
3
0
24
Titans
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
354
Total Plays
70
68
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.27
Passing Yards
--
265
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
21/45(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.30
Rushing Yards
124
89
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
24%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
6
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-18.89
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-44
Sack EPA
--
-8.89
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
97
35
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-3.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
Texans-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-234
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
-197.1
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U