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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ titans week 13, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
10-1
24
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
19 mph
10
TENTitans
4-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
66°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
7
3
0
24
Titans
3
0
7
0
10

Spread

HOU logo
-7

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
331
354
Total Plays
70
68
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.27
Passing Yards
--
265
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
21/45(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.30
Rushing Yards
124
89
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
24%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
6
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-18.89
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-44
Sack EPA
--
-8.89
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
97
35
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-3.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-235
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
-197.6
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
1.6
60
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
3.3
71
10/08
-0.9
43
10/14
-6.6
11
10/21
3.0
69
11/04
2.9
68
11/11
-6.1
12
11/18
14.3
99
11/22
-0.6
46
J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
53
09/16
-1.7
38
09/23
11.1
98
09/30
-5.7
14
11/11
0.1
51
11/25
-2.8
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
14
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6

EPA

EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/23
6
W
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/08
6
W
L
U
10/14
-18
L
L
O
10/21
30
W
W
O
11/04
12
W
W
U
11/11
7
W
W
U
11/18
6
W
L
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-23
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
O
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/04
-31
L
L
O
11/11
34
W
W
U
11/25
-5
L
L
U