HOUTexans
7-7
34
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
15 mph
6
TENTitans
3-11
TBD
Nissan Stadium
73°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
4
7
17
0
28
Titans
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
257
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
4.8
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.39
Passing Yards
202
227
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
27/52(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.24
Rushing Yards
128
30
Rush Attempts
42
11
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.96
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
+0.87
-17.63
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-5.39
-5.30
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
28
43
Penalty EPA
-2.96
-3.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+53.0
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-67.6
Home QB Adjustment
-79.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
+35.3
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-79.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
32
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U