HOUTexans
1-12
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
22°F
14 mph
14
TENTitans
7-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
22°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
3
0
9
19
Titans
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
272
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.28
Passing Yards
215
88
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.75
Rushing Yards
70
184
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
8
4
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.32
-11.16
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-11
Sack EPA
-1.21
-5.21
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
-2.91
-3.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
Titans-3.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,337
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.0
Home QB Adjustment
-73.2
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
-103.3
Final Difference
89.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
M. Willis
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-73.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U