HOUTexans
9-7
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
10 mph
14
TENTitans
3-13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
9
0
1
17
Titans
0
3
3
8
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
316
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
6.4
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.13
Passing Yards
167
231
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.19
Rushing Yards
207
85
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
7.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.80
-9.45
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-16
Sack EPA
-1.47
-3.27
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
48
68
Penalty EPA
+5.88
-7.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model46.9%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
54.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+62.3
Home QB Adjustment
+49.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.6
Market Regression
+13.2
Final Difference
-21.9
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+49.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
21
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
26
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-4
O/U