HOUTexans
2-0
7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
034
MINVikings
2-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
0
7
Vikings
14
0
7
13
34
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
274
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
4.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.16
Passing Yards
258
156
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.19
Rushing Yards
38
118
Rush Attempts
14
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.45
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
--
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.37
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-49
-25
Sack EPA
-7.66
-3.95
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
88
30
Penalty EPA
-10.06
-4.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model48.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
+9.2
Final Difference
11.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
31
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
28
18
Vikings Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
3
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U