HOUTexans
3-1
13
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
031
MINVikings
4-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
0
7
13
Vikings
14
4
0
7
25
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
351
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
3.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.01
Passing Yards
155
255
Comp/Att
19/42(45%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.45
Rushing Yards
59
96
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
8%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.04
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-29
-16
Sack EPA
-8.74
-3.57
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
97
Penalty EPA
--
-7.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.0
Home QB Adjustment
+38.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+38.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
25
14
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
29
2
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Vikings Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U