TENTitans
5-6
27
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
11 mph
21
CHIBears
2-8
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
14
3
3
27
Bears
7
0
0
14
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
411
Total Plays
52
76
Yards / Play
7.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
28/54(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.05
Rushing Yards
149
95
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
45%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.70
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
118
48
Penalty EPA
-8.60
-6.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
Bears+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+57.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-102.4
Home QB Adjustment
-68.8
Away QB Adjustment
+33.7
Market Regression
-72.7
Final Difference
-88.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+33.7
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-68.8
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
26
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Bears Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
22
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
22
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U