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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ bears week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-6
27
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
11 mph
21
CHIBears
2-8
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
40°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
14
3
3
27
Bears
7
0
0
14
21

Spread

CHI logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
375
411
Total Plays
52
76
Yards / Play
7.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
28/54(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.05
Rushing Yards
149
95
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
45%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.70
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
118
48
Penalty EPA
-8.60
-6.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+57.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-102.4
Home QB Adjustment
-68.8
Away QB Adjustment
+33.7
Market Regression
-73.3
Final Difference
-89.2
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+33.7
Value
Ptile
09/18
0.5
53
09/25
-6.2
11
10/02
-3.7
22
10/09
9.5
96
10/16
6.2
87
10/23
-0.2
46
10/27
6.2
87
11/06
6.3
88
11/13
7.5
91
11/20
1.2
58
M. Barkley headshot

M. Barkley

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-68.8
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Bears Defense
Titans logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
26

EPA

EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
28
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Bears Offense vs Titans Defense
Bears logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
22
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
22
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
1
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
U
10/02
-7
L
L
O
10/09
13
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
-8
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/06
-8
L
L
O
11/13
22
W
W
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/19
-15
L
L
O
09/25
-14
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
L
O
10/16
-1
L
L
U
10/20
-16
L
L
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/13
-26
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
W
U