TENTitans
5-1
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
24 mph
31
CINBengals
1-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
13
20
Bengals
3
14
0
14
31
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
441
367
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
7.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.32
Passing Yards
223
--
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.49
Rushing Yards
218
118
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.52
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
27
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
56%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.28
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.45
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
68
45
Penalty EPA
-8.63
-5.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-154
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
-48.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
2
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
6
Interceptions / Game
3
20
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
6
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bengals
2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U