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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ bills week 7, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-4
10
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
12 mph
34
BUFBills
4-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
0
0
10
Bills
0
7
10
17
34

Spread

BUF logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
289
389
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
4.3
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.22
Passing Yards
200
315
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.39
Rushing Yards
89
74
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.66
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-3.87
-1.39
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
52
40
Penalty EPA
-4.77
-4.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model75.6%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.1%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+68.8
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-51.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+53.0
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
196.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+53.0
Value
Ptile
11/03
-1.0
47
11/10
-2.2
37
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
01/03
0.2
47
11/14
-0.4
49
12/23
3.7
74
12/31
1.2
57
01/06
1.2
57
01/15
3.1
71
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
12/31
0.7
54
01/07
5.9
86
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98
09/08
8.8
95
09/12
-0.8
43
09/23
10.7
98
09/29
-3.6
24
10/06
-3.4
25
10/14
6.8
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Titans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13

EPA

EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
29
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Bills logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
30
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
3
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
6
W
L
O
01/07
7
W
W
U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/12
21
W
W
U
09/23
37
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O