TENTitans
1-4
10
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
12 mph
34
BUFBills
4-2
TBD
New Era Field
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
0
0
10
Bills
0
7
10
17
34
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
389
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
4.3
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.22
Passing Yards
200
315
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.39
Rushing Yards
89
74
Rush Attempts
24
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.66
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-3.87
-1.39
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
52
40
Penalty EPA
-4.77
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model75.6%
Spread Pick
Titans+9.5
Expected Value
+5.1%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+68.8
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-51.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+53.0
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
196.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+53.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
12
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
29
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
30
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
3
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U