TENTitans
-
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
79°F
10 mph
14
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
79°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
9
16
Broncos
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
323
Total Plays
78
59
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.05
Passing Yards
247
--
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.21
Rushing Yards
130
107
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.16
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-0.59
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-4.61
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
2
1
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U