TENTitans
1-0
14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
64°F
12 mph
28
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
64°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
7
7
14
Browns
14
1
0
7
22
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
274
Total Plays
74
47
Yards / Play
5.2
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.01
Passing Yards
219
158
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
8/15(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.25
Rushing Yards
166
116
Rush Attempts
30
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.05
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-38
-14
Sack EPA
-14.56
-4.01
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
85
40
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-4.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+3.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model41.6%
Spread Pick
Browns+1.0
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
61.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,366
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-34.2
Final Difference
58.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
J. Manziel
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
29
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
31
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
32
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U