TENTitans
3-3
12
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
12 mph
9
CLEBrowns
0-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
3
3
0
3
3
12
Browns
0
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
284
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
4.0
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
189
218
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.27
Rushing Yards
80
66
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.33
-10.97
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-17
Sack EPA
-1.46
-2.70
Penalties
5
12
Penalty Yards
35
81
Penalty EPA
-1.57
-9.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,335
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
26
31
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
19
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U