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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ browns week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-3
12
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
12 mph
9
CLEBrowns
0-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
3
3
0
3
3
12
Browns
0
3
3
3
0
9

Spread

CLE logo
+6

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
269
284
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
4.0
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.26
Passing Yards
189
218
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.27
Rushing Yards
80
66
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
2.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.33
-10.97
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-17
Sack EPA
-1.46
-2.70
Penalties
5
12
Penalty Yards
35
81
Penalty EPA
-1.57
-9.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,337
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+68.1
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Value
Ptile
11/20
1.2
58
11/27
5.9
86
12/11
-5.5
13
12/18
-3.3
24
12/24
-6.1
11
09/10
3.5
78
09/17
-0.6
47
09/24
5.0
84
10/01
-0.2
50
10/16
1.6
65
D. Kizer headshot

D. Kizer

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.2
23
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-2.0
39
10/01
-7.6
10
10/08
-6.4
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Titans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7

EPA

EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
26
31
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Browns logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
19
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
4
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
24
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
3
W
W
U
12/18
2
W
W
U
12/24
-21
L
L
O
01/01
7
W
W
U
09/10
-10
L
L
U
09/17
21
W
W
O
09/24
6
W
W
O
10/01
-43
L
L
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
-3
L
L
U
10/15
-16
L
L
O