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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ buccaneers week 1, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
-
42
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
8 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
-
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
15
14
7
0
36
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
309
273
Total Plays
49
63
Yards / Play
6.3
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.30
Passing Yards
185
181
Comp/Att
13/15(87%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
12.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
+1.28
-0.31
Rushing Yards
124
92
Rush Attempts
32
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.57
-12.50
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-24
-29
Sack EPA
-4.85
-4.98
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
55
97
Penalty EPA
-8.09
-9.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
No recent game data available
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Titans logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Titans Defense
Buccaneers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
4
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
13
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
1
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
23
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-2
L
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/09
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/23
-19
L
L
O
11/30
-24
L
L
O
12/07
-29
L
L
U
12/14
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/28
-17
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-5
L
W
U
11/09
-10
L
L
U
11/16
20
W
W
U
11/23
-8
L
L
U
11/30
-1
L
W
U
12/07
-17
L
L
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/21
-17
L
L
U
12/28
-3
L
W
U