TENTitans
3-5
6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
6 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
0
3
6
Buccaneers
0
7
10
3
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
340
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
3.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.03
Passing Yards
167
263
Comp/Att
19/39(49%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.27
Rushing Yards
42
77
Rush Attempts
16
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.20
-1.67
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-32
-15
Sack EPA
-6.45
-4.35
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-4.90
-6.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-36.5
Market Regression
+15.0
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-36.5
Value
Ptile
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
15
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
28
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
8
30
EPA / Rush
30
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U