TENTitans
0-4
22
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
021
ARICardinals
2-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
0
16
22
Cardinals
14
7
0
0
21
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
360
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.09
Passing Yards
249
192
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.04
Rushing Yards
78
168
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-2.67
-6.48
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-28
Sack EPA
-4.57
-4.64
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
35
47
Penalty EPA
-4.40
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,319
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-18.0
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
192.9
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-3.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.0
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
31
Rushing Yards / Game
32
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
31
21
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
29
18
Cardinals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
14
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U