TENTitans
0-4
+7.5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0-7.5
ARICardinals
2-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,319
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-18.0
Market Regression
-15.2
Final Difference
192.7
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.0
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
29
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Cardinals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
21
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U