TENTitans
5-2
25
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
65°F
10 mph
33
LACChargers
2-5
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
65°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
14
0
6
23
Chargers
7
7
10
9
33
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
456
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
6.6
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.32
Passing Yards
--
300
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.51
Rushing Yards
65
156
Rush Attempts
19
34
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
31%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
4
12
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.37
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.29
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
80
62
Penalty EPA
-10.27
-7.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model59.4%
Spread Pick
Titans+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
+11.4
Final Difference
66.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4
EPA
EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
10
28
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U