TENTitans
2-6
17
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
027
LACChargers
5-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
3
7
17
Chargers
3
10
7
7
27
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
309
Total Plays
51
57
Yards / Play
5.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.24
Passing Yards
157
--
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.54
Rushing Yards
132
145
Rush Attempts
21
39
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
7
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-7.15
--
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
68
--
Penalty EPA
-9.03
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model79.8%
Spread Pick
Chargers-8.5
Expected Value
+14.5%
Cover Probability
60.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+272
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+56.9
Base HFA
+42.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-25.7
Market Regression
+5.6
Final Difference
238.5
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-25.7
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
2
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
19
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U