TENTitans
5-2
34
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
3-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
0
14
7
4
3
28
Colts
14
3
7
7
0
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
307
Total Plays
68
72
Yards / Play
5.0
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.07
Passing Yards
247
224
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
27/51(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.26
Rushing Yards
93
83
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.85
-12.33
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-2.93
-2.03
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
161
75
Penalty EPA
-16.94
-7.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.8
Market Regression
+51.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
9
26
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
2
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U