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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ colts week 13, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
11-0
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
0
7
17
Colts
7
17
0
3
27

Spread

IND logo
-6

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
375
358
Total Plays
77
64
Yards / Play
4.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
233
--
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.40
Rushing Yards
142
88
Rush Attempts
33
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.95
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.32
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
50
40
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-4.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+202
Home nfelo
1,664
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
-43.5
Final Difference
153.9
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
12/16
4.6
80
12/23
-5.9
13
12/30
1.9
64
01/06
-4.3
23
09/07
-5.4
13
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
11/23
3.3
72
11/29
3.8
74
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
09/21
5.7
85
09/27
10.4
97
10/04
8.4
93
10/11
10.2
96
10/25
6.6
87
11/01
2.2
65
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
6.5
87
11/22
3.0
69
11/29
2.8
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
15
7
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20

EPA

EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
2
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11

EPA

EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
27
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
2
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-3
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-20
L
L
O
10/11
-22
L
L
U
10/18
-59
L
L
O
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
U
IND logo

Colts

10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
4
W
W
O
09/27
21
W
W
U
10/04
17
W
W
O
10/11
22
W
W
U
10/25
36
W
W
O
11/01
4
W
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
U
11/15
1
W
P
O
11/22
2
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O