TENTitans
5-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
11-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
0
7
17
Colts
7
17
0
3
27
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
358
Total Plays
77
64
Yards / Play
4.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
233
--
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.40
Rushing Yards
142
88
Rush Attempts
33
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
53%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.95
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.32
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
50
40
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-4.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
-44.2
Final Difference
153.1
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
7
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U