TENTitans
5-6
14
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
022
INDColts
7-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
0
14
Colts
6
6
3
7
22
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
264
Total Plays
74
62
Yards / Play
4.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.06
Passing Yards
185
160
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.30
Rushing Yards
162
104
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.33
-2.36
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-16
-40
Sack EPA
-7.15
-5.63
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
74
50
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-9.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
96.9
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
18
21
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U