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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ colts week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-6
14
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
22
INDColts
7-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
0
14
Colts
6
6
3
7
22

Spread

IND logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
347
264
Total Plays
74
62
Yards / Play
4.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.06
Passing Yards
185
160
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.30
Rushing Yards
162
104
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.33
-2.36
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-16
-40
Sack EPA
-7.15
-5.63
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
74
50
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-9.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+21.9
Market Regression
-8.2
Final Difference
97.0
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Value
Ptile
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17
11/14
3.3
72
11/24
6.9
90
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
09/15
1.9
63
09/22
1.6
61
09/29
1.5
61
10/06
1.8
62
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46
11/10
-1.9
40
11/14
3.9
76
11/24
-1.5
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
12
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
18
21
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
10
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-6
L
W
O
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
11/24
4
W
W
P
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-4
L
L
O
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
34
W
W
U
10/06
6
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-30
L
L
O
11/14
3
W
W
O
11/24
-29
L
L
O