TENTitans
3-12
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
7-8
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
3
7
24
Colts
10
10
1
3
24
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
327
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
4.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
94
200
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.05
Rushing Yards
137
127
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.12
-4.86
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-43
-7
Sack EPA
-7.50
-2.81
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
60
71
Penalty EPA
-3.64
-7.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,360
Home Field
+63.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
-88.4
Away QB Adjustment
-72.3
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
125.3
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-72.3
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-88.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
25
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
32
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U