TENTitans
2-2
21
TBD
FedExField
70°F
017
WASCommanders
1-3
TBD
FedExField
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
7
0
21
Commanders
3
7
7
0
17
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
385
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
3.9
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.07
Passing Yards
136
342
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.02
Rushing Yards
105
43
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.65
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-45
-17
Sack EPA
-8.98
-3.11
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
69
71
Penalty EPA
-7.17
-9.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
N/A
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-2.1
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+9.5
Final Difference
-6.5
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
6
9
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
20
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U