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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ commanders week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-8
19
TBD
FedExField
42°F
6 mph
42
WASCommanders
7-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
42°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
6
6
19
Commanders
21
7
0
14
42

Spread

WAS logo
-6

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
245
463
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.20
Passing Yards
210
196
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
25/30(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.34
Rushing Yards
35
267
Rush Attempts
11
45
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.65
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
12
29
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.34
-4.50
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-2
-10
Sack EPA
-1.73
-3.33
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
93
65
Penalty EPA
-11.94
-5.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+49.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.0
Market Regression
-0.2
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.0
Value
Ptile
12/17
-6.4
12
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45
09/22
-5.4
14
09/30
-7.0
8
10/13
-4.4
20
11/10
-1.4
38
11/17
-4.2
21
11/24
-4.4
20
J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
8.3
93
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
1.8
61
10/13
3.7
73
10/20
-2.8
28
10/27
4.2
76
11/03
4.7
78
11/10
-5.1
15
11/14
-2.7
29
11/24
4.0
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Titans logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31

EPA

EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
29
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
31
24
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
24
27
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Commanders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25

EPA

EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
2
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
6
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
10/20
-24
L
L
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
P
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/29
28
W
W
O
10/06
21
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/20
33
W
W
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
O
11/14
-8
L
L
U
11/24
-8
L
L
O