TENTitans
3-8
19
TBD
FedExField
42°F
6 mph
42
WASCommanders
7-5
TBD
FedExField
42°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
6
6
19
Commanders
21
7
0
14
42
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
463
Total Plays
51
77
Yards / Play
4.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.20
Passing Yards
210
196
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
25/30(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.34
Rushing Yards
35
267
Rush Attempts
11
45
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.65
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
29
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
42%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.34
-4.50
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-2
-10
Sack EPA
-1.73
-3.33
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
93
65
Penalty EPA
-11.94
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+47.9
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+49.1
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.2
Market Regression
-0.0
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
30
20
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
31
24
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
24
27
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U