TENTitans
2-2
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
1-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
7
3
14
34
Cowboys
3
7
7
10
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
511
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.04
Passing Yards
163
370
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.03
Rushing Yards
158
141
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.73
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-10
-36
Sack EPA
-1.17
-10.28
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
40
133
Penalty EPA
-3.92
-13.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
28
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
28
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
22
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Cowboys Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
7
RZ Efficiency
8
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U