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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ cowboys week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
2-2
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
27
DALCowboys
1-2
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
7
3
14
34
Cowboys
3
7
7
10
27

Spread

TEN logo
+7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
321
511
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
5.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.04
Passing Yards
163
370
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.03
Rushing Yards
158
141
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.73
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-10
-36
Sack EPA
-1.17
-10.28
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
40
133
Penalty EPA
-3.92
-13.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
11/29
3.8
74
12/06
1.5
60
12/13
3.9
74
12/20
2.8
68
12/25
-5.4
17
01/03
-3.8
25
09/12
3.1
70
09/19
-7.4
8
09/26
-1.6
39
10/03
0.2
50
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
Value
Ptile
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
4.0
75
12/19
4.2
78
12/27
2.0
64
01/03
3.9
75
01/09
3.7
74
01/17
-7.7
9
09/12
4.4
78
09/19
4.0
76
09/26
7.0
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Titans logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
28
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
28
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
22
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Cowboys Offense vs Titans Defense
Cowboys logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
8
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
9
7
RZ Efficiency
8
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
U
12/13
40
W
W
O
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
-25
L
L
O
01/03
4
W
L
U
09/12
25
W
W
O
09/19
-8
L
L
U
09/26
19
W
W
U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-7
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/19
7
W
W
U
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
20
W
W
O
01/17
-31
L
L
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
-7
L
L
O
09/26
14
W
W
U