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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ dolphins week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
-
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph
27
MIADolphins
-
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
0
17
20
Dolphins
0
7
3
17
27

Spread

MIA logo
0

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
336
342
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
222
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.08
Rushing Yards
116
120
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.92
-6.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.13
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
48
51
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-6.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+29.0
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
11/12
-0.6
47
11/16
-5.3
18
11/26
-3.0
31
12/03
0.8
58
12/10
-9.5
4
12/17
3.6
78
12/24
-0.1
51
12/31
0.5
56
01/06
1.2
61
01/13
-2.1
38
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
09/29
-6.7
9
10/09
-10.8
2
10/16
2.6
69
10/23
1.3
59
11/06
-2.5
30
11/13
3.9
78
11/20
-2.0
34
11/27
5.6
85
12/04
-4.3
18
12/11
3.1
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Titans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31

EPA

EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
16
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Dolphins logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19

EPA

EPA / Play
28
13
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
27
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
27
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
4
W
L
O
11/16
-23
L
L
O
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/03
11
W
W
U
12/10
-5
L
L
U
12/17
-2
L
W
O
12/24
-4
L
W
O
12/31
5
W
W
U
01/06
1
W
W
U
01/13
-21
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-40
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
P
O
11/13
-24
L
L
O
11/19
-10
L
L
O
11/26
-18
L
L
O
12/03
26
W
W
O
12/11
7
W
W
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U