TENTitans
-
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph
27
MIADolphins
-
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
0
17
20
Dolphins
0
7
3
17
27
Spread
0
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
342
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
222
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.08
Rushing Yards
116
120
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.92
-6.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.13
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
48
51
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-6.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+66.4
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+29.9
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19
EPA
EPA / Play
28
13
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
27
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U