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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ dolphins week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
0-3
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
9 mph
12
MIADolphins
1-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
9
10
10
29
Dolphins
0
3
3
6
12

Spread

TEN logo
+1

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
244
184
Total Plays
62
55
Yards / Play
3.9
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.37
Passing Yards
102
78
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.51
Rushing Yards
142
106
Rush Attempts
40
30
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
16
13
Passing 1st downs
5
4
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
17%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.53
-5.22
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-1.94
-3.72
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
69
98
Penalty EPA
-6.24
-14.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model61.8%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+38.3
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-36.6
Home QB Adjustment
-50.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
83.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
11/12
-10.4
2
11/19
-1.0
44
11/26
-2.0
35
12/03
-6.3
12
12/11
2.0
63
12/17
-6.4
12
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45
09/22
-5.4
14
T. Huntley headshot

T. Huntley

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-50.1
Value
Ptile
11/21
-5.1
19
12/19
11.5
98
01/02
-3.7
26
01/09
-5.8
15
12/11
-3.3
26
12/17
-7.4
8
12/24
-3.4
26
01/01
-1.8
40
01/15
2.4
72
01/06
-2.7
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Titans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Dolphins logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
30
Yards / Game
18
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25

EPA

EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
31
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
16
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
7
W
W
U
12/03
-3
L
L
O
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
30
W
W
O
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/17
30
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
12/31
-37
L
L
O
01/07
-7
L
L
U
01/13
-19
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
L
U
09/12
-21
L
L
U
09/22
-21
L
L
U