TENTitans
1-3
30
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
15 mph
17
MIADolphins
1-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
14
3
6
30
Dolphins
0
8
3
0
11
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
200
Total Plays
70
41
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.29
Passing Yards
--
149
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
12/18(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.57
Rushing Yards
235
51
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
8
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.64
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-42
Sack EPA
--
-8.26
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
40
83
Penalty EPA
-4.16
-12.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
11
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
13
12
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
21
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
18
RZ Efficiency
14
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U