TENTitans
5-3
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
9 mph
29
MIADolphins
4-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
0
7
0
17
Dolphins
7
3
10
9
29
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
404
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
4.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.02
Passing Yards
124
316
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.29
Rushing Yards
135
88
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.37
-1.46
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
-7
Sack EPA
-6.59
-1.49
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
55
63
Penalty EPA
-6.43
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+46.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-40.6
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
42.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-40.6
J. Pennington
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
28
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
21
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
26
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U