TENTitans
4-8
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
64°F
9 mph
27
MIADolphins
9-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
64°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
10
3
15
28
Dolphins
1
0
3
17
21
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
366
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
5.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
322
208
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.23
Rushing Yards
83
158
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.92
+0.03
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-32
Sack EPA
-2.03
-12.22
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
59
61
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-5.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+321
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+61.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
-41.2
Market Regression
+45.5
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-41.2
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
21
13
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Dolphins Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
24
32
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
3
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U