TENTitans
-
14
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
87°F
5 mph
16
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
87°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
7
7
14
Jaguars
7
3
3
3
16
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
323
Total Plays
49
73
Yards / Play
6.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
249
160
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.15
Rushing Yards
43
163
Rush Attempts
13
47
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.49
-4.50
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-2.87
-3.20
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
39
Penalty EPA
-2.39
-4.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
19.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
L. McCown
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
23
12
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U