TENTitans
1-1
9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
89°F
10 mph
6
JAXJaguars
2-0
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
89°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
3
3
9
Jaguars
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
232
Total Plays
59
56
Yards / Play
3.9
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.23
Passing Yards
83
145
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.18
Rushing Yards
150
87
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
12
Passing 1st downs
6
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-0.06
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-10
Sack EPA
-5.42
-3.00
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
30
75
Penalty EPA
-2.03
-8.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
Titans+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+91.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-77.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
222.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-77.1
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U