TENTitans
3-2
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
8 mph
3
JAXJaguars
3-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
10
3
10
30
Jaguars
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
249
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
5.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
173
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.47
Rushing Yards
153
76
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
57%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.29
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-2.51
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
57
55
Penalty EPA
-6.23
-6.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
28
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U