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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 11, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-6
14
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
3 mph
34
JAXJaguars
6-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
7
7
14
Jaguars
7
6
14
7
34

Spread

JAX logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
235
389
Total Plays
38
69
Yards / Play
6.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.38
Passing Yards
143
261
Comp/Att
13/17(76%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.52
Rushing Yards
92
128
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.36
+4.63
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-1
Sack EPA
-5.16
-0.40
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-7.31
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+40.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-45.2
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-45.2
Value
Ptile
10/29
3.6
73
11/02
-5.2
18
11/12
-10.4
2
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
28
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
21
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-4
L
W
U
09/10
-1
L
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-24
L
L
U
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/29
5
W
W
O
11/02
-4
L
L
U
11/12
-14
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U