TENTitans
3-6
14
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
3 mph
34
JAXJaguars
6-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
7
7
14
Jaguars
7
6
14
7
34
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
235
389
Total Plays
38
69
Yards / Play
6.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.38
Passing Yards
143
261
Comp/Att
13/17(76%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.52
Rushing Yards
92
128
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.36
+4.63
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-1
Sack EPA
-5.16
-0.40
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
66
--
Penalty EPA
-7.31
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+40.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-45.2
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-45.2
Value
Ptile
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
28
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U