TENTitans
3-12
13
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
16 mph
20
JAXJaguars
3-12
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
3
13
Jaguars
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
295
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.17
Passing Yards
178
173
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.35
Rushing Yards
159
122
Rush Attempts
30
33
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.27
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-1
Sack EPA
-3.24
-2.09
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+28.3
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-102.1
Home QB Adjustment
-44.8
Away QB Adjustment
+57.4
Market Regression
-17.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+57.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-44.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
30
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
13
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U