TENTitans
0-1
16
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
015
DETLions
1-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
0
13
16
Lions
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
375
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
224
238
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.07
Rushing Yards
139
137
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
5.8
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-2.41
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-4.33
-2.96
Penalties
12
17
Penalty Yards
83
138
Penalty EPA
-12.01
-14.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+88.3
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+16.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-5.2
Final Difference
152.3
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
12
26
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Lions Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
17
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U