TENTitans
5-9
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
9 mph
55
GBPackers
10-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Packers
14
6
14
21
55
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
180
460
Total Plays
59
76
Yards / Play
3.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.31
Passing Yards
101
343
Comp/Att
13/30(43%)
28/40(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.36
Rushing Yards
79
117
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.44
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-39
-8
Sack EPA
-9.44
-1.79
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.22
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.5
Home QB Adjustment
-12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U