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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ packers week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-9
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
9 mph
55
GBPackers
10-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Packers
14
6
14
21
55

Spread

GB logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
180
460
Total Plays
59
76
Yards / Play
3.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.31
Passing Yards
101
343
Comp/Att
13/30(43%)
28/40(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.36
Rushing Yards
79
117
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.44
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-39
-8
Sack EPA
-9.44
-1.79
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.22
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+286
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.5
Home QB Adjustment
-12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-12.5
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
53
09/16
-1.7
38
09/23
11.1
98
09/30
-5.7
14
11/11
0.1
51
11/25
-2.8
32
12/02
-6.9
10
12/09
1.4
60
12/17
-0.2
49
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
Value
Ptile
10/07
1.9
62
10/14
14.1
99
10/21
9.1
94
10/28
0.0
50
11/04
3.9
75
11/18
-0.7
45
11/25
-4.8
20
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
-0.8
43
12/16
5.8
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Titans logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
28
8
EPA / Rush
23
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Packers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23

EPA

EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
5
23
EPA / Rush
20
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
2
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-23
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
O
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/04
-31
L
L
O
11/11
34
W
W
U
11/25
-5
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
-4
L
L
O
12/17
4
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-3
L
L
O
10/14
18
W
W
O
10/21
10
W
W
O
10/28
9
W
L
U
11/04
14
W
W
O
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/25
-28
L
L
U
12/02
9
W
W
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/16
8
W
W
U